Brazil Education: The regional playbook behind on-campus outperformance and 2026 opportunities

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Brazil Education: The regional playbook behind on-campus outperformance and 2026 opportunities

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Brazil Education

The regional playbook behind on-campus

outperformance and 2026 opportunities

Industry Overview

Geographic footprint helps explain performance difference 26 June 2026

We believe regional exposure helps explain much of the recent performance divergence Equity

among listed education companies and could also shape 2026 trends. Post-pandemic, Latin America

the North (NO) and Northeast (NE) outperformed other regions on OC growth, while on Education and Training

DL, Southeast (SE) and NE led the growth. This helps explain Cogna’s outperformance, Flavio Yoshida >>

as it increased its presence in some of the strongest regions, similarly to Ser. In Research Analyst

contrast, YDUQS’ OC concentration in the Southeast was a headwind, as the region Merrillflavio.yoshida@bofa.comLynch (Brazil)

underperformed the overall industry. Macro variables, such as unemployment, is closely Mirela Oliveira >>

linked to these regional dynamics and point to a more favorable outlook for the Research Analyst

Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

Northeast and South in 2026, potentially benefiting Ser and Ânima. mirela.oliveira@bofa.com

North and Northeast led OC growth: positive for Cogna

The NO and NE regions were the best OC performers between 2022 and 2024, with

student bases growing 13% and 3%, respectively, compared to a 1% decline nationally

OC: On-campus(Exhibit 1). Together, these regions represent ~28% of the student base, and we believe

DL: Distance learningimproving labor market conditions supported enrollment growth. Cogna and Ser were

the main beneficiaries, gaining ~1.0pp and 4.5pp in share, respectively, while also