Injecting Confidence: Management Meetings Highlight Stable Demand, Pipeline on Track, and Profitability in Sight

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Injecting Confidence: Management Meetings Highlight Stable Demand, Pipeline on Track, and Profitability in Sight

agement

expressing confidence that the scalability of its existing commercial infrastructure FY27E EPS 0.20 0.20

provides a clear pathway to achieving its near- and long-term margin targets. We FY26E REV 333.03 333.03

continue to view the injectable aesthetics market as structurally attractive and remain FY27E REV 389.09 389.09

constructive on Evolus' differentiated positioning within it, underpinned by a credible EPS (Adjusted)EQUITY pathway to sustainable operating profitability. FY Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E

■ State of the neurotoxin market: Management noted that the U.S. neurotoxin Q1 (0.15) (0.05)A 0.02

market appears on stable footing, with consumers continuing to engage at a Q2 (0.23) (0.05) 0.02

consistent cadence despite a fluid macroeconomic backdrop and inflationary Q3 (0.11) (0.09) 0.01

pressure on the middle-income cohort. While newer consumers may be staying

Q4 0.05 0.05 0.15RESEARCH on the sidelines, the existing treatment base appears firm, with many having

already stretched their treatment intervals. Longer term, the category remains FY EPS (0.44) (0.14) 0.20

meaningfully underpenetrated relative to markets like Brazil and Korea. FY P/E - - 34.2x

■ Competition: In April, AbbVie (ABBV, Not Rated) announced it received a CRL from Revenue (M)

the FDA for trenibotulinumtoxinE (TrenibotE), its short-acting, rapid-onset toxin, FY Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E

related to manufacturing processes, and indicated it expects to submit a response Q1 68.52 73.14A 84.86

in the coming months. At a conference earlier this month, Galderma (SWX: GALD, Q2 69.39 82.31 95.55

Not Rated) management disclosed that resource constraints at the FDA could delay Q3 68.97 78.19 92.14