Transport Tracker: Issue #1235, week ending June 24: Spot rates surge to ’21 levels; GBX Preview

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Transport Tracker: Issue #1235, week ending June 24: Spot rates surge to ’21 levels; GBX Preview

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Transport Tracker

Issue #1235, week ending June 24: Spot

rates surge to ’21 levels; GBX Preview

Industry Overview

Hoexter’s Thought of the Week 24 June 2026

Spot rates reach ‘21 levels on capacity strain (not demand) Equity

United StatesDry-Van truckload spot rates (ex-fuel) increased to $2.17/mile this week from

Transport/Infrastructure

$2.16/mile, up 45% yr-yr, and continue to show strength following seasonal impacts

from the May 12-14 Roadcheck week. Rates have now reached levels last seen in 2021

(effectively in line with $2.18/mile this week in June 2021), when the extreme market

tightness was primarily led by post-Covid demand surge. Our recent discussions with

truckload carriers (KNX and WERN) and brokers (RXO and CHRW) reiterated the truckload

rate upcycle is being led by capacity tightening. The tightness is driven by the Trump

Administration’s crackdown on English Language Proficiency (ELP), non-domiciled

Commercial Drivers’ Licenses, non-compliant electronic logging devices (ELDs), CDL

mills (non compliant driver schools), while underlying demand is broadly stable. Our

BofA Truck Shipper Demand Indicator has held steady at a 62.8 avg. over the past 10

wks, above its historic 60 'growth signal,' which we believe augurs well for continued

strong ISM levels. Last issue (see Survey note), the Capacity Indicator (20.5) reached its

lowest levels since May '21, highlighting the widespread impact of the removal of truck Ken Hoexter

capacity. Conversely, the Rate Indicator reached 90.9, the highest level Sept ’17, and the Research Analyst

BofAS

second highest level in our survey’s history. +1 646 855 1498

ken.hoexter@bofa.com