Technical Advantage: Macro roundup heading into Q3

研报英文原文证据摘录

Technical Advantage: Macro roundup heading into Q3

e highs, and the 10Y yield failed to close the month above 4.62% (to break out

Technical Advantage: Dull scissorsfrom its monthly triangle pattern). We are trend seekers, but yield remains stuck in a

range (3.90–4.60%). Ideally, the 10Y holds above 4.20% and makes another attempt to Chart alpha: Six reasons to short euro

break higher. US 2s10s: A double top implies more flattening, inversion risk.

See Exhibit 1 for abbreviations.

FX: Still bearish EURUSD, head-&-shoulders top confirmed Abbreviations:

We remain bearish EURUSD into 3Q26 and are short since May 20. Multiple timeframe 1H / 2H = first / second half of

charts and signals point lower: the monthly shows a turn lower from the 200m SMA; the d = day

weekly confirmed a head-and-shoulders top; the daily shows a bearish triangle. Possible wk = week

targets: 1.1240, 1.1111, 1.0950, 1.0880, and potentially the 1.06s (monthly support). m = month

Q = quarter

Brent: Abundance of scenarios, tail risks continue to fade Y = year

Brent is tracking 1H22, albeit faster given the sharp selloff. The next repeat phase would YoY = year-over-year

MoM = month-over-monthbe stabilization in the $65–85 range in 2H26. Since the May 22 bear gap down from

Y2 = Year 2$101.34, we’ve held a bearish bias provided the gap remained open, and it did. Prices

USPC = US Presidential Cyclehave declined further and filled the late-February gap near $73, which was formed on

SMA = Simple Moving Average

the onset of the US-Iran conflict. Residual downside risk remains, but it is harder to RSI = Relative Strength Index

chase at these current levels and oversold readings that imply a forthcoming bounce. MACD = Moving Average

Convergence Divergence

DXY = US dollar index