Investor Day - Top Quartile EBITDA Growth, with Degrees of Freedom

研报英文原文证据摘录

Investor Day - Top Quartile EBITDA Growth, with Degrees of Freedom

Consumer | Food Retailing

June 25, 2026

Casey's General Stores, Inc. Michael Montani, CFA Greg Melich, CFA 212-446-5655 212-446-9484

CASY | $801.35 Michael.Montani@evercoreisi.com Greg.Melich@evercoreisi.com

Outperform | Target Price/Base Case: $975.00 Daragh Regan

Company Update 212-446-5603

Daragh.Regan@evercoreisi.com

Investor Day - Top Quartile EBITDA

Company Statistics

Growth, with Degrees of Freedom 52-Week Range $433.63 - $917.47

Base Case $975.00 Casey’s hosted an Investor Day in NYC yesterday to deep dive its

Upside/Downside 21.7% 8-10% EBITDA growth algo reinforcing share gain, M&A, and

Market Capitalization (M) $29,650 margin levers. We view CASY as a core holding in Food Retail with

Price/Earnings 42.2 20pct upside on a 12-18 month view. The Investor Day did not unearth

Forward P/E 38.6 major surprises, but it did underscore our view that the company is set

Short Interest 3.8% to deliver the standard for c-store comps, strong unit growth, and

enhanced margin realization owing to co. specific comp and margin

drivers. Degrees of freedom come from potential to build/acquire more

Earnings Summary than the 400 stores outlined – potentially as many as 500-600 if a large

2025 2026 2027E deal materializes, our belief that there are 2-3 cents of CPG profit in fuel

Consensus EPS $19.16 $21.07 $23.21 to be wrangled form internal initiatives, our belief that chicken wings can

EPS $19.17 $21.70 $23.70 add 50-150bps to comps for several years, and efficiency gain spurred

by AI all of which have the potential to deliver mid teen or higher EPS

growth. Risks include high expectations – i.e. Street EPS growth is

1 Year Price History 12% for this year, the potential for the multiple to tread water as Casey’s