Gurit "Revisiting our investment case - Upgrade to Buy" (Buy) Queral Ferre

研报英文原文证据摘录

Gurit "Revisiting our investment case - Upgrade to Buy" (Buy) Queral Ferre

F)

China in 2026 (c8% including China). We also see structural tailwinds linked to rising

From To % ch Cons.

electricity demand (e.g., AI-driven) and the role that wind will play in it. Based on 12/26E 3.02 3.10 3 3.13

forecasts from the International Energy Association, we estimate wind-generated 12/27E 3.67 3.85 5 3.62

electricity to supply AI infrastructure could experience a c20% CAGR over 2025-30. 12/28E 4.08 4.41 8 4.02

Overall, we think the wind end-market is likely to support Gurit's sales in the coming

years, and see it as a beneficiary of the rising need for alternative energy sources. Marti Queral Ferre, CFA

Analyst

marti.queral-ferre@ubs.com

Key risks to our Buy thesis – but likely not impacting Gurit near-term

+41-44-236 9246

We identify two main downside risks to our Buy thesis: (1) penetration of Chinese OEMs

Joern Iffert, CFAin Western markets, especially Europe (although we don't expect a near-term impact

amid national security concerns – see antidumping investigation into Goldwind by the joern.iffert@ubs.com

European Commission (link) and the blocking of a wind turbine factory from Ming Yang +41-44-239 88 00

in the UK (link)). (2) Pricing pressure, which has been common in the wind supply chain

over the last few years, although it is likely easing near term given stable ASPs and rising

margins at OEMs.

Valuation: New DCF-derived PT of CHF43 (from CHF25)

We raise our PT to CHF43 on: (1) EPS increases of +3-8% over 2026-28E reflecting

higher growth and margins, (2) lower WACC of 8.5% (9.0% previously), and (3)

increase our terminal sales growth and terminal EBITDA margin +100 bp each to

1.5%/9%, respectively. Gurit trades on a c7x 2026E EV/EBIT, which represents a c50%