Tisco Financial Group: Capped payout

研报英文原文证据摘录

Tisco Financial Group: Capped payout

Accessible version

Tisco Financial Group

Capped payout

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 112.00 THB | Price: 116.50 THB

The dividend ceiling 25 June 2026

We expect TISCO's DPS to remain at Bt7.75 despite stronger earnings. On the back of Equity

higher fees, we forecast 2Q26 profit of Bt1.73bn, up 5% YoY and flat QoQ. We also raise

our earnings forecasts by an average of 3% for 2026-27 and now project EPS growth of

Key Changes5-6% p.a. Nevertheless, our DDM-based PO remains unchanged at Bt112 as we continue

to expect DPS to remain at Bt7.75. In our view, higher earnings merely reinforce (Bt) Previous Current

dividend sustainability rather than create scope for higher shareholder distribution. 2026E EPS 8.55 8.71

Meanwhile, stronger fees also does little to improve TISCO's relative positioning versus 2027E EPS 8.86 9.23

cheaper peers with greater potential for capital returns. 2028E EPS 9.29 9.00

Few tailwinds left Sarachada Sornsong ^^^

TISCO has been a key beneficiary of the easing-rate cycle given its predominantly fixed- Research Analyst Kiatnakin Phatra Securities

rate loan book and short-duration deposit structure. However, with our house view +66 2 305 9197

calling for a terminal policy rate of 1%, we believe most funding-cost benefits have sarachada.sorn@kkpfg.com

already been captured. We project only a further 15bps decline in funding costs in 2Q26

before this tailwind fades.

Stock Data

Growth constrained by risk discipline

Loan growth has started to recover, supported by new-car hire purchase and corporate Price 116.50 THB

lending. However, management has slowed expansion in higher-yield title-loan products Price Objective 112.00 THB

as risk-adjusted returns remain unattractive.