Hong Kong Viewpoint: Mid-year outlook: From sectoral recovery to broader-based growth

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Hong Kong Viewpoint: Mid-year outlook: From sectoral recovery to broader-based growth

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Hong Kong Viewpoint

Mid-year outlook: From sectoral recovery

to broader-based growth

From sectoral rebound to broad-based growth 26 June 2026

We upgrade Hong Kong’s GDP growth to 3.5% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, reflecting a GEM Economics

transition from narrow sectoral recovery to more broad-based expansion. External Asia | Hong Kong

tailwinds remain durable, while domestic demand is improving sequentially. At the same Ting Him Ho, CFA

time, easing geopolitical tensions are set to moderate inflationary pressures, reinforcing Asia Economist

real income growth and consumption. Merrill+852 3508Lynch8744(Hong Kong)

tinghim.ho@bofa.com

Cyclical tailwinds to boost growth through 2027 Helen Qiao

We expect the external sector to remain an important growth engine. Goods exports ChinaMerrill&LynchAsia Economist(Hong Kong)

have already accelerated by ~35% YTD, in line with the global tech-driven trade upswing. +852 3508 3961

helen.qiao@bofa.com

The ongoing AI investment cycle is lifting demand for semiconductors and related

goods, with Hong Kong benefiting as a re-export hub. Meanwhile, domestic demand is

now catching up, led by the property-consumption nexus. Secondary home prices are up

9% YTD, with monthly transactions averaging ~6,200 units, compared to 5,200 in 2024.

This should support a sustained recovery in household consumption through a wealth

effect channel.

“Super-connector” role drives services upside

Geopolitical fragmentation is a double-edged sword, but in this cycle it enhances Hong

Kong’s role as a neutral intermediary. Financial services (~25% of GDP) are benefiting

from stronger IPO activity and a surge in cross-border wealth flows, with Hong Kong