High Yield & Loan Strategy: Funding the Future #1: Are we in an AI-capex bubble?

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High Yield & Loan Strategy: Funding the Future #1: Are we in an AI-capex bubble?

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High Yield & Loan Strategy

Funding the Future #1: Are we in an AI-

capex bubble?

This is the inaugural installment of our ‘Funding the Future’ series focused on credit market 25 June 2026

impact of the AI buildout. High Yield & Loan Strategy

United States

Not a bubble… yet

AI-led corporate capex is large, visible and accelerating, but sits only a touch above its Neha Khoda

Credit Strategist

70yr avg when scaled to GDP. Private investment, however, is elevated, but still leaves BofAS

room for an additional ~$400bn in annual spend to match historical peaks. Given the size +1neha.khoda@bofa.com646 855 9656

and scale of AI infrastructure demand, this threshold serves as our baseline, with an Adam Vogel

edge case reaching up to $750bn in annual incremental spending. Credit Strategist

BofAS

High base, thin cushion adam.vogel@bofa.com Dong Ba

The issue for credit is not the pace but the starting level of capex. Unlike past cycles Credit Strategist

that ramped from a low base, AI spend is building on elevated ground usually BofASdong.ba@bofa.com

characteristic of mid/late-cycle levels, on account of years of cheap money and capex- Elizabeth M. Han

friendly fiscal policy post GFC. That leaves less room for delayed monetization, cost Credit Strategist

overruns or a slower productivity payoff before investors start demanding a higher risk BofASelizabeth.han@bofa.com

premium. Yuri Seliger

The funding shock may be smaller than the spending shock BofASyuri.seliger@bofa.com

The strongest credit offset is that corporate America enters this cycle as a net saver,

with roughly 1.6% of GDP in excess capital that can be redeployed internally. That