Revolution Medicines: Solid Zoldonrasib combo data at ESMO-GI further RevMed’s lead in PDAC; PO to $212

研报英文原文证据摘录

Revolution Medicines: Solid Zoldonrasib combo data at ESMO-GI further RevMed’s lead in PDAC; PO to $212

Catalysts now test durability and launch leverage

Near term, stock performance should still be driven by daraxonrasib regulatory progress,

review pathway details, label language, EAP uptake, commercial readiness and launch

execution in 2L+ PDAC. The zoldonrasib updates should add support around RASolute

305, where the key questions will be whether randomized 1L data can convert high

response and ctDNA activity into PFS and OS benefit across mFFX and GnP backbones.

We will also watch ESMO-GI presentations (on July 2nd) for patient-level durability, depth

of response, subgroup balance, discontinuations, dose reductions and whether the

doublet safety profile is more manageable with additional experience.

Summary of model changes

We change our probability of success and peak penetration for zoldonrasib in 1L PDAC

to 64% (from 55% prior) and 40% (from 30% prior), respectively; and 2L PDAC peak

penetration to 45% (from 35%). Our zoldonrasib share expectations are now on par with

our revenue build for daraxonrasib, reflecting pull-through use in both settings. The

result of these changes moves our per share valuation for zoldonrasib to $53 (from $26

prior) and total valuation to $212 (from $185 prior)

Abbreviations

AE: adverse event

ASCO: American Society of Clinical Oncology

ctDNA: circulating tumor DNA

DCR: disease control rate

EAP: expanded access protocol

ESMO GI: European Society for Medical Oncology Gastrointestinal Cancers Congress

GnP: gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel

mFFX: modified FOLFIRINOX

mPDAC: metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

NALIRIFOX: liposomal irinotecan, fluorouracil, leucovorin and oxaliplatin

ORR: objective response rate

OS: overall survival