Refining Estimates for Florida SDP, Core Growth vs Prior Model Unchanged

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Refining Estimates for Florida SDP, Core Growth vs Prior Model Unchanged

Health Care Facilities & Services

Tenet Healthcare

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC ESTIMATE CHANGES

June 24, 2026

Price: $182.96 (06/24/2026) Refining Estimates for Florida SDP, Core

Price Target: $233.00 Growth vs Prior Model Unchanged

BUY (1)

ESG SCORE: 50/100

Ryan Langston THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1418

Following our recent model changes (here), we update our expectations for Florida SDP

ryan.langston@tdsecurities.com

program incremental benefit expected in 2Q26 to $95m. We use data from the Florida AHCA,

William Spivack which provides transparency into SDP allocations. We continue to expect THC will accrue 7

202 868 5302 quarters of benefit in 2Q26. We are not modeling any benefit in 2027. Our PT remains $233. We

william.spivack@tdsecurities.com

see THC better positioned in 2Q vs peers.

Christian Borgmeyer, CFA

646 562 1430 Refining Florida SDP Estimate Using AHCA Data - We are updating our HCA model to

christian.borgmeyer@tdsecurities.com incorporate explicit data from the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA),

Gary Taylor which provides transparency into SDP allocations by facility. This data set allows us to more

646 562 1450 precisely estimate the magnitude and allocation of the Florida SDP $ amounts to hospitals.

gary.taylor@tdsecurities.com Our 2Q26 adj EBITDA now reflects a +$95m yty incremental benefit from the Florida program.

Key Data We Expect Florida SDP Accrued Different For THC vs Peers - We expect THC will accrue

Symbol NYSE: THC 7 quarters of benefit from the Florida SDP program; the full FY25 incremental amount

Beta: 1.27 (4Q24-3Q25) and run-rate for 4Q25-2Q26. We also believe THC will run-rate the new program

52-Week Range: $244.80-$148.38 $'s in 3Q-4Q26.