Data Center Load: De-Risked and Bounded

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Data Center Load: De-Risked and Bounded

er stranded cost risk and higher EPS PREV

durability, not open-ended margin.

Our differentiation sits in the financing and the earned-ROE path, not headline EPS. Our estimates Exhibit 1 - SO FY3 P/E premium/discount vs

are within 0.5% of consensus across the forecast, so this is not an EPS-level disagreement. We regulated electric peers

carry capex of ~$82bn versus ~$79bn at consensus, front-loaded (+5.7% in 26E, +8.4% in 27E), and 25%20% 25%20%

equity issuance of ~$9.0bn versus ~$7.7bn, with the gap to the Street widest in 29E and 30E. We 15% 15%

model GP average book earned ROE at 10.0% to 10.8%, below 2025’s 11.2-11.3% and the 11.90% 10% 10%

sharing start. If the recent strength persists, that is ~$0.15 to $0.30 of SO EPS upside, capped and 80%- 5% 5%

shared above the band. 0% 0%

-5% -5%

Recent filings tightened the setup ahead of any earnings catalyst. The 2025 surveillance showed -10%Jun-25 Aug-25 Oct-25 Dec-25 Feb-26 Apr-26 Jun-26-10%

GP earning 11.34% (~11.2% operating). Current large load disclosure reached 15.6 GW across 32 .Source: Bloomberg,Prem/(Disc)Jefferiesvs Regulatedanalysis.Electric Peers Average 10.1%

customers (12.4 GW at the March 31 filing), with 21 projects under construction, inside a 76.2 We are focused on Georgia Power's earned

GW pipeline; certification stands at 9,885 MW, now under a Fulton County appeal arguing ~757 ROE range in coming years given ongoing

MW exceeded the calculated winter 2031 need; and the FCR-27 settlement cleared 5-0 at a net bill sales acceleration - and yet further upside Julien Dumoulin-Smith * | Equity Analyst

decrease. The June 16 runoffs set the November lineup without changing the readthrough. +1latitude.(281) 774-2066Related,| jds@jefferies.comwatch election in GA, but