Purolator Survey Flags Uncertainty into CUSMA Review + Carloads

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Purolator Survey Flags Uncertainty into CUSMA Review + Carloads

June 22, 2026 RBC Dominion Securities Inc.

Survey Flags Uncertainty into CUSMA Review + Carloads Walter Spracklin, CFA James McGarragle, CFA, CPA

(Analyst) (Analyst)

(416) 842-7877 (416) 842-7862

Rail Merger Barometer Carload Update – We provide a snapshot of railroad carload trends walter.spracklin@rbccm.com james.mcgarragle@rbccm.com

in the exhibit below, emphasizing how the QTD volumes are

Rail Merger Barometer. We recently trending relative to our estimates. This is followed by detail on the Industrial & Transportation Sector News

introduced the Rail Merger Barometer. This sub-segments driving the volume growth. Survey Flags Uncertainty into CUSMA

Barometer is tracking 1) the implied probability Review. Purolator Courier (Canada’s largest

of success based on NSC and UNP’s share North American rail volumes posted broad-based growth this week next-day courier company) recently published its

prices vs. the implied deal price, 2) key on the back of strong Intermodal volumes. Coal remained the findings from a survey of 348 supply chain and

stakeholder commentary related to the merger, primary point of weakness. logistics decision-makers, offering a timely read

and 3) RBC ElementsTM analysis of relevant on freight demand conditions ahead of the July

news flow. These results are summarized on CUSMA review. We see a mixed read-through

slide 2. for Canadian transport stocks where cross-

border shipments are meaningful. On the

Summary Class 1 rail volumes negative side, shippers are compressing forward

Transport Sector Investor Survey RTM and Carload Data volume commitments and shortening booking

New Survey. Given recent leading indicators, Week 24 Actual QTD RBC Q2/26 windows, a direct headwind to cross-border