C&D International Investment Group Ltd: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

C&D International Investment Group Ltd: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– C&D International- C&D InternationalInvestment Group LtdInvestment(1908.HK) Group Ltd

(1908.HK)Leading developer with above-peer EPS growth and 7-8% dividend outlook

PRICE TARGET HK$19.30 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Our HK$29.69/share 2026e NAV comprises HK$32.49/share of development properties (DCF, ▪~10% core earnings CAGR seen over

8.2% WACC), HK$0.93/share of other business and HK$3.73/share of net debt. To this we 2026-28E with a 7-8% dividend yield amid

apply a 35% discount based on our developers' scorecard, comprising landbank (with a 8/10 gross margin expansion.

score), execution (8), scale (8), growth (8), profitability (7), financing (9), and leverage (8). ▪Strong progress on land acquisitions in

We use 30-45% discounts in our coverage. top-tier cities with higher attributable ratio

to improve property sales visibility in 2H26- HK$20.24

1H27.

Consensus Price Target Distribution HK$18.69 HK$22.17 operational efficiency with low MS PT ▪High

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates exposure to legacy projects (account for

~15% of total unsold landbank).

▪SOE background with a solid balance

sheet and support from parent-co C&D Real

RISK REWARD CHART Estate.

HKD HK$22.27HK$22.27(+73.31%)HK$22.27(+73.31%)(+73.31%) Consensus Rating Distribution

100%Overweight

20 HK$19.30HK$19.30(+50.19%)HK$19.30(+50.19%)(+50.19%) 0% Equal-weight

0% Underweight

15 MS Rating

HK$12.85HK$12.85HK$12.85 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

10 HK$11.88HK$11.88(-7.55%)HK$11.88(-7.55%)(-7.55%)

Risk Reward Themes

Contrarian: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

JUN '25 DEC '25 JUN '26 JUN '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target