Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) (Buy) - From de-rating to recovery; maintain Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) (Buy) - From de-rating to recovery; maintain Buy

Nomura Securities Malaysia Sdn Bhd

Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI.JK BBRI IJ 15 June 2026

EQUITY: BANKS

RatingFrom de-rating to recovery; maintain Buy Remains Buy

price IDR 4,500 RemainsRaise FY27-28F earnings by ~5-15%; TP maintained Target

Closing price

12 June 2026 IDR 2,850BBRI has underperformed peers by a wide margin over the past 12 months (-26% vs.

BMRI/BBNI [both rated Buy] down 15%/14%, and JCI index down 12%), reflecting macro

headwinds in the rural/micro segments, Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR) policy risk, and a sustained Implied upside +57.9%

high-rate environment keeping CoF elevated. We view the de-rating as largely priced in and

expect earnings to trough in FY26F, with a re-acceleration driven by below structural catalysts: Market Cap (USD mn) 23,936.4

ADT (USD mn) 55.9

Digital-led CoF compression. BRImo is structurally migrating transactional CASA balances

into a lower-cost digital ecosystem, reducing the reliance on term deposit promotions and

relationship-based rural time deposits. The transformation remains early-stage — BBRI's Tier Relative performance chart

3–4 micro/SME customer base is among the last to digitise in Indonesia banking — implying a

long CoF tailwind runway. Critically, NIM headroom expansion from this channel is loan-

growth-independent, and this minimises policy-driven lending rate risk. Credit cost cycle

normalization. The 12MMA CoC has peaked and is in a clear descent, driven by improving

micro collections and the maturation of restructured Covid-era exposures. Gross write-offs —

which spiked through 2022–2024 as the post-Covid micro book seasoned — are declining on

both absolute and loan-mix-adjusted bases. Leading indicators corroborate: LAR contraction