Upgrading to Market — Seeing the Forest for the Trees; Target Price to $94

研报英文原文证据摘录

Upgrading to Market — Seeing the Forest for the Trees; Target Price to $94

PS $6.80 $7.76↑ $8.55↓

launch of Opzelura; 3) String of pipeline failures reducing confidence in clinical

Revenue $5,141 $5,644↓ $6,207↓

development; 4) Seemingly no coherent answer to P&L stability or growth following

the 2029 expected LOE of Jakafi; and 5) Near-term overreliance on Jakafi to drive sales Consensus Estimates

and earnings. 2025A 2026E 2027E

While we're not totally out of the woods, new CEO Bill Meury has begun to EPS $7.53 $8.89

articulate and execute on a reasonable and sound transformation plan. Notably, Valuation

Incyte's recent Vega deal incorporates VGA039, which has potential to provide 2025A 2026E 2027E

meaningful revenue ($500M-$1B+) in peak sales in the 2030s. Such a deal improves P/E 14.4x 12.7x 11.5x

our confidence in management's capital allocation strategy. Additional revenue

QTR. EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

contributions from Niktimvo, Monjuvi, and povorcitinib show potential to further slow

declines from Jakafi. 2025A $1.16 $1.57 $2.26 $1.80

mCALR/'989 and other investigational assets have begun to mosaic a sustainable 2026E $1.81 $1.86 $1.98 $2.10

portfolio less reliant on oral ruxolitinib. Despite weaker data at the recent EHA

meeting, we continue to estimate $759M in adjusted peak revenue for '989 across MF/

ET, lower than consensus of $1.39B, reflecting expected contributions from mutant CALR

(mostly Type 1) patients. While recent efficacy data for '989 is not as strong as many

had hoped, it still remains core to the revenue stabilization story post the Jakafi LOE.

Other oncology pipeline products like '734 and '890 represent upside to our valuation.

Rounding out key assets, Jakafi XR could help to further stabilize revenues.

Key Changes