ADNOC Drilling Q2 Preview: Another solid quarter anticipated; FY guidance should remain unchanged

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ADNOC Drilling Q2 Preview: Another solid quarter anticipated; FY guidance should remain unchanged

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

26 June 2026

ADNOC Drilling Overweight

ADNOCDRILL.AD, ADNOCDRI UH

Q2 Preview: Another solid quarter anticipated; FY Price (25 Jun 26):Dh5.83

guidance should remain unchanged Price Target (Dec-27):Dh6.02

ADNOC Drilling expects to release Q2 results on July 30th. As per guidance on the CEEMEA Chemicals and Healthcare

ACQ1 call, 1H revenue is expected at around USD 2.44 bn, EBITDA at USD 1.05bn, Alex Comer

and net income at USD 0.69bn, which implies that Q2 will come in at or around (44-20) 7134-5945

the Q1 level. As such, we expect Q2 revenue, EBITDA and net income to see little alex.r.comer@jpmorgan.com

to no change versus Q1, though the revenue mix will differ slightly – with lower J.P. Morgan Securities plc

OFS revenue compensated by higher onshore revenue, whilst offshore revenue

should be flat. This mix shift is forecast to push up group EBITDA margin +20bps Style Exposure

qoq. We are roughly in line with BBG consensus on revenue but model EBITDA

margin +80bps higher vs consensus. Our net income estimate is 1.6% lower vs

consensus.

We model onshore revenue of SAR 507m (+6.3% qoq) – comprised of core

revenue SAR 445m (+1.0% qoq), unconventional revenue of SAR 26m (flat qoq)

due to lower unconventional phasing for FY26 vs. FY25 and we expect SLDC/

MBPS should together contribute SAR 37m to Q2. Onshore EBITDA margin is

expected to come in at 45.8% (-30bps qoq) given slight margin dilution from

acquisitions. Offshore revenue is anticipated to be SAR 342m (-1.0% qoq) as the

segment will have been relatively unaffected by Middle East disruption –

reinforced by continued reiteration of FY26 guidance as well as by our fireside chat