What’s the Hazard! Decoding the Infamous Hazard Ratio

研报英文原文证据摘录

What’s the Hazard! Decoding the Infamous Hazard Ratio

Biotechnology

EQUITY RESEARCH Industry Report

June 22, 2026

What’s the Hazard! Decoding the Infamous Hazard

Research Analysts:

Eric Schmidt Ratio

212-294-7724

Eric.Schmidt@cantor.com Hazard ratios (HRs) are a nearly ubiquitous measure in clinical trial Josh Schimmer

310-282-6513 reporting. Most investors understand intuitively that an HR=0.70 equates to

Josh.Schimmer@cantor.com a 30% reduction in the risk that an event occurs on the drug arm of a study.

Funing Lin But to truly understand how HRs can be used (and misused), how a Kaplan-

212-294-7739 Meier curve should be interpreted, or even scrutinized, and how interim Funing.Lin@cantor.com

time-to-event data may or may not be predictive of a final analysis requires Yanni Souroutzidis

929-730-2656 a much deeper understanding of some key statistical considerations.

Yanni.Souroutzidis@cantor.com

In this report, we deconstruct the HR from the ground up to provide

investors with all the tools needed to better understand time-to-event

analyses. We start with the basics: what a hazard rate is, how it is

calculated, and how it is connected to the Kaplan-Meier curves investors

see in nearly every oncology data presentation. We then walk through how

hazard rates are converted into hazard ratios, why the Cox regression has

become the industry standard, and what assumptions underlie the HRs you

see reported in press releases, publications, and FDA review. You'll never

look at an HR as a black box again.

But our insights don't stop there. We explain why not all HRs are created

equal and what investors should make of unadjusted, stratified, and

covariate-adjusted HRs. We walk through how these adjustments work,