Stress-Testing The BIIB080 Investment Case

研报英文原文证据摘录

Stress-Testing The BIIB080 Investment Case

Biotechnology

Biogen Inc. (BIIB)

EQUITY RESEARCH Company Update

June 22, 2026

Stress-Testing The BIIB080 Investment Case Price: $196.58

Price Target: $206.00

We've been somewhat critical of Biogen's decision to advance BIIB080 Rating: Overweight

(anti-Tau ASO) into a Phase 3 trial for Alzheimer's disease (see our note

Key Statistics: HERE). Specifically, we've been concerned that Biogen was (once again)

Symbol NSQ: BIIB making a very large bet on a neurodegenerative disease program that 52-Week Range 121.05 - 205.97

may be associated with a lower probability of success than the rest of its Market Cap 29,022.5

ADV (3 mo) 1,176,433 pipeline.

Shares Out (M) 147.6

On the other hand, some may argue that Biogen's increasingly diversified

Research Analysts: pipeline affords the company the flexibility to pursue higher-risk programs

Eric Schmidt like BIIB080. While a broader portfolio may increase BIIB's capacity to

212-294-7724 absorb risk, it should not change the capital investment decision-making

Eric.Schmidt@cantor.com

around any individual asset, in our view. Alexa Deemer Conzola, MD

212-610-2242

Alexa.Deemer@cantor.com We'll get detailed data on BIIB080 at the AAIC conference in London

(July 12-15). A more complete understanding of the Phase 2 results may

REV ($000) influence the way people think about the probability of success for this

FYE Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E program in Phase 3.

1Q $2.4 $2.5A -

2Q $2.6 $2.3E -

3Q $2.5 $2.4E - In the meantime, we set out to better assess the potential for an

4Q $2.3 $2.4E - investment in BIIB080 to yield a positive return. We constructed a series

Year $9.9 $9.7E $9.7 of NPV sensitivity analyses across multiple peak sales scenarios, varying