KeyCorp: 2Q26 EPS PREVIEW: C&I, IB fees to more than compensate for expense rise

研报英文原文证据摘录

KeyCorp: 2Q26 EPS PREVIEW: C&I, IB fees to more than compensate for expense rise

Equity Research

U.S. Large-Cap Banks

25 June 2026

KeyCorp

2Q26 EPS PREVIEW: C&I, IB fees to

more than compensate for

KEY EQUAL WEIGHTexpense rise

Unchanged

For 2026, KEY is looking for modest loan growth and NIM U.S. Large-Cap Banks POSITIVE

expansion plus fee growth to drive continued positive Unchanged

operating leverage. Credit quality should be relatively stable Price Target USDUnchanged24.00

with share buyback expected to accelerate (new $3bn share Price (23-Jun-26) USD 23.02

repurchase program announced in May). Potential Upside/Downside +4.3% Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Market Cap (USD mn) 24847

Expected Results Shares Outstanding (mn) 1079.37

Free Float (%) 99.66

Expected results: We expect KEY to report 2Q26 EPS of $0.45 (+$0.01 on better NII) compared to 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 19.1

consensus of $0.43. For full-year 2026, KEY expects average loans to be up 2-4% though with Dividend Yield (%) 3.56

average commercial loans up 6-8%. In addition, it expects to grow NII by 9-10%, with NIM exiting Return on Equity TTM (%) 10.61

4Q26 around 3.05% and further expansion to 3.25% by 4Q27. Fee income growth in 2026 is Current BVPS (USD) 16.08

expected to be 5-6% with adjusted expenses increasing 3-4%. Credit quality should continue to Source: Bloomberg

be stable while share repurchase increases under the recently announced $3bn program.

Price Performance Exchange-NYSE

Significant items: We expect KEY's preferred dividend to be $36mn, flat with 1Q26. In 1Q26, KEY

52 Week range USD 23.34-16.01

added $5mn to its loan loss reserve.

Expected drivers: Relative to 1Q26, we expect results to exhibit higher NII (+3%) driven by