Capital Goods Capex Tracker: 2026 capex est. flat in June; 29%/8% growth with/without Hyperscalers

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Capital Goods Capex Tracker: 2026 capex est. flat in June; 29%/8% growth with/without Hyperscalers

Barclays | Capital Goods Capex Tracker

FIGURE 2. 2026 capex estimates are up +17% YTD and flat m/m, driven mainly by Hyperscalers

45% 41% YTD change M/M change

35%

22%

25% 17%

15% 10% 12% 12%

5%

5% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 2% 0%

-5% 0% 0% 0% -2%-2% -2% -1% -4% -1%-2% 0% -1%

-15%

O&G Mining Semis and Trucks capex Total Aerospace Autos Marine Utilities Warehouse Automation Rail F&B Hyperscalers capex (ex. Total Hyperscalers)

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Our key Overweights: EPIA (favourable 'mid-cycle' exposure and self-help), SAND (sector-

leading top-line growth driven by mining and tungsten + acceptable valuation), ATCOA

(improving organic growth outlook in Compressors and strong momentum in Vacuum), ALFA

(strong earnings growth and visibility driven by Energy and Marine, mix support across key

divisions), SU (Data center, grid infrastructure and energy capex drive ~50% of SU's earnings),

PRY (promising exposure to European Grid, and favourable US tariff setup)and BEAN (liquid

cooling growth underappreciated).

Our key Underweights: VWS (DD downside risk to consensus EBIT for 2026, driven by slower

sales growth and only moderate margin improvement), METSO (lack of exposure to Gold,

elevated valuation multiples, lack of large orders), KONE (anti-trust related uncertainties and

elevated pro-forma debt/leverage), ALO (continuing execution challenges and FCF headwinds),

LIGHT (continuing end market headwinds: downside risk to consensus sales and margins) and

ELUX (overestimated margin recovery, in our view, and continuing macro headwinds).

FIGURE 3. Capex growth expected for each end-market

100%

2024 2025 2026E 2027E 84%

80% 72%

60% 52%

37%

40% 29%