European Integrated Energy – a focus on Norway: A May pullback in both volumes and premiums

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European Integrated Energy – a focus on Norway: A May pullback in both volumes and premiums

Equity Research

25 June 2026

European Integrated Energy – a focus on Norway

A May pullback in both volumes

and premiums

NPD's latest data showed a pullback in both NCS production European Energy Services

volumes and crude premiums in May. However, Equinor's POSITIVE

recent CMD highlighted the depth of the NCS growth pipeline POSITIVEEuropean Integrated Energy

and improving long-term resource opportunity, which we European Integrated Energy

Naisheng Cui, CFAsee helping mitigate concerns over mature fields declines.

+44 (0)20 7773 0486

naisheng.cui@barclays.com

May production was down 11%m/m: Total May production was 3,728 kboe/d, down 0.9% y/y, Barclays, UK

and 11.1% m/m. This was 2.8% above the NPD forecast but 3.3% below our forecast. The miss

Lydia Rainforth, CFA

versus our forecast was mainly liquids-led, with liquids at 1,910 kb/d, down 3.0% y/y, 6.1% +44 (0)20 3134 6669

above NPD but 5.5% below our forecast. Gas was 10,700 mcf/d, up 1.4% y/y, broadly in line with lydia.rainforth@barclays.com

forecasts. Compared to April, total production fell 11.1% m/m, reflecting both lower liquids and Barclays, UK

gas volumes. On a quarter-to-date basis, production remains broadly supportive, with total

Ramachandra Kamath

output 1.0% higher y/y, 3.8% above NPD forecast and 1.3% above our forecast. Although not +91 (0)22 61752308

directly comparable at the company level, the trend remains broadly supportive for Aker BP, Vår ramchandra.kamath@barclays.com

Energi and Equinor, in our view. Barclays, UK

May premiums vs both Dated and ICE Brent dropped: We track crude prices from five key Thea Lacroix