First Read: Nedbank Group Ltd "Earnings tracking in line with FY26..."

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First Read: Nedbank Group Ltd "Earnings tracking in line with FY26..."

Global Research

24 June 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesNedbank Group Ltd

Earnings tracking in line with FY26 guidance, NII South Africa

better, credit losses worse Banks, Ex-S&L

12-month rating Neutral

12m price target 29,700RCnt

Earnings progression remains on track despite the Middle East conflict

Nedbank's trading update ahead of 1H results expected on 4 August indicates earnings

progression remains on track to achieve its FY26 guidance, with H1 headline earnings Price (24 Jun 2026) 27,500RCnt

(excluding the contribution of ETI in the base of R927m) growing by upper single digits. RIC: NEDJ.J BBG: NED SJ

NII is a bit better than we have modelled and credit losses worse (including an

Trading data and key metrics

idiosyncratic single name loss in BCB). We make small adjustments to our H1 vs. H2

forecast, trimming FY26E slightly by 0.7% as we see EPS growth of 5.4% yoy (taking 52-wk range 31,500RCnt-20,833

into account a slightly lower share count from the implemented share buy back). We see Market cap. R126b/US$7.57b

the ROE at 15.2% for FY26E. Our forecast also incorporates our changed rates view, Shares o/s 457m (ORD)

now having no further hikes this year and 3 cuts in FY27E. We remain of the view that Free float 79%

the ROE uplift would be relatively slow. Avg. daily volume ('000) 1,533

Avg. daily value (m) R407.5

Key trends largely in line – NII slightly better, credit losses higher Common s/h equity (12/26E) R121b

NII growth has started to accelerate towards low to mid SDs in H1, now expected to be P/BV (12/26E) 1.0x

above previous guidance of mid SDs growth for FY26 (UBSe 6%). Improving Tier 1 ratio 14%

NII progression is due to CIB balance sheet growth as delayed IB transactions started to