Latam Macro Notes: Mexico – Banxico stays put and reiterates guidance of steady rates. Yet, we now pencil in one “fine-tuning” hike by year-end.

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Latam Macro Notes: Mexico – Banxico stays put and reiterates guidance of steady rates. Yet, we now pencil in one “fine-tuning” hike by year-end.

Deutsche Bank

Research

Emerging Markets Date

Latam Macro Notes 25 June 2026

Mexico – Banxico stays put and reiterates

Francisco Campos guidance of steady rates. Yet, we now pencil

Chief LatAm Economist

+1-212-250-9764 in one “fine-tuning” hike by year-end.

Beatriz Garcia Nunes

Key points: LatAm Economist

• Banxico decided unanimously to leave the policy rate unchanged at +1-212-250-9584

6.50%, as expected.

Christian Gonzalez Rojas

• The communiqué mostly looked through the recent upside surprise on Macro Strategist

+1-212-250-9184

activity and downside surprise on inflation, keeping the balance of risks

skewed to the downside for growth and tilted to the upside for inflation. Carlos Munoz-Carcamo

Macro Strategist

• Banxico's forecast revisions were mild and mixed-slightly lower for +1-212-250-2259

headline inflation and slightly higher for core-while the Board continued

to expect convergence to the 3% target in Q2 2027, supported by the

behavior of the MXN, the absence of demand-pull pressures and the

current monetary stance.

• Forward guidance continued to hint at steady rates for some time, as the

Board judged the current policy stance appropriate to weather domestic

and external risks. Weather-related pressures, arguably referring to

potential effects from El Niño, were added to the list of upside inflation

risks.

• Following the US team's revised Fed call (2x25bp hikes) and the likely

persistence of core inflation, we now pencil in one "fine-tuning" 25bp hike

in December aimed at preserving a relative position to the Fed that limits

the risks to the inflation outlook stemming from MXN pressures. We