European Real Estate Outlook: Turning Positive on Residential - U/G VNA - Top Picks: VNA, MRL, VGP

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European Real Estate Outlook: Turning Positive on Residential - U/G VNA - Top Picks: VNA, MRL, VGP

Deutsche Bank

Research

Europe Industry Date

25 June 2026

Real Estate European Real

Real Estate Industry Update

Estate Outlook

Turning Positive on Residential - U/G

VNA - Top Picks: VNA, MRL, VGP

Thomas Rothaeusler

Positive on Residential and Logistics European Real Estate continued to

Research Analyst

underperform in the first half of the year, pushing sentiment, positioning, and +49-69-910-43054

valuation to trough levels. We see more upside than downside from here, as we

believe higher rate expectations are largely priced in and see a chance for some Sheetal Jaimalani

Research Associate

repositioning back from growth to value. We take a cautious view on the economic

outlook for Europe and are more in the recession camp. We view the energy price

shock from the Mideast conflict on inflation as being of a more temporary nature

Key Changes

compared to the impact on the economy, which we expect to be longer-term. On

Company Target Price Rating

this backdrop, we are turning positive on defensive Residential, upgrading VNA to

AT1.DE 2.80 to 2.40 -

Buy and adding it to our top picks. We're turning slightly more cautious on

Commercial, reducing our price targets on lower target multiples; however, we see CAIV.VI 24.00 to 23.00 -

good re-rating potential for Logistics on Mideast deal hopes, attractive stock CTPNV.AS 22.00 to 19.00 -

valuation and the Segro bid being supportive. Our top picks are VNA, MRL, VGP. DWNG.DE 26.00 to 23.00 -

GFCP.PA 96.00 to 90.00 -

Residential de-rating looks overdone German Residential saw a significant hit GYC.DE 11.00 to 9.00 -

from the Mideast conflict on higher inflation and rate expectations. It now trades LEGn.DE 75.00 to 67.00 -