Q2'26 Preview: Constructive on Wise, Adyen and Edenred; Cautious on Nexi

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Q2'26 Preview: Constructive on Wise, Adyen and Edenred; Cautious on Nexi

(-38%), Worldline (-37%) and Adyen (-35%), followed by Nexi (-15%). That performance Indexdigitalthatpaymentsconsistsindustry.of 38 constituents tracking the global

compares to +7% for the SXXP and WALLET Index (-15%).

Figure 3 - Payments sector long-term 12m fwd

Consensus revision tracker improved slightly: After several quarters of broader negative cons. EV/EBITDA trend

earnings revision, we saw estimates improving since Q1-end, while further improvement on 43x

brightened macro outlook on the Middle East conflict is possible. 38x33x

33x avg. (Covid)

28x

How to play Q2 in European Payments - Wise, Adyen and Edenred long, Nexi cautious: 23x 17x avg. (pre-Covid)

Among Payments companies, we see a favourable setup into Wise's FY26 (due 25/6, 18x 9x

see preview) and FQ1'27 (16/7) trading update on the back of efficiency gains offsetting 13x8x 17x avg. (post-Covid)

investments and persistent customer growth. On Adyen (13/8 [tbc] - Q2 trends), we expect Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 PaymentsJan-19 Jan-20sectorJan-2112m fwdJan-22EV/EBITDAJan-23 trendJan-24 Jan-25 Jan-26

topline acceleration and positive commentary on customer expansion to improve recent .Source: FactSet, Jefferies, Payments sector = ADYEN, WLN,

depressed sentiment. We take a more cautious view on Nexi (7/5), where we expect the ramp- NEXI,WDI, INGC,NETW,NETS,FIS, FISV,EVOP.GPN, PYPL, XYZ, V, MA, TSS, FDC, WP,

down in issuance from an Italian bank to kick in, while underlying macro remains unsupportive.

Among Payments Services companies, we are constructive into Q2 on Edenred (23/7 - see Q2

trends), where we expect a strong result and potential guidance upgrade, driven by initial signs