普通外文研报
High Confidence into TGTX Ph3 Subq CD20 RMS Data ~YE26 + Market Oppy; PT to $83
研报英文原文证据摘录
High Confidence into TGTX Ph3 Subq CD20 RMS Data ~YE26 + Market Oppy; PT to $83
usivity out to 2045 vs. current 2042, which is still under-estimated by the Street, leading to our PREV 0.19 0.22 0.33 1.14
meaningfully higher sales projection in outer years (Chart 1). Regarding emerging comps, we are
only aware of Kesimpta Q2M potential filing in '27, and don't believe that remi/ oral BTKi could
fundamentally impact aCD20 class in RMS given long-standing excellent efficacy/ safety and pt-
friendly infrequent injection.
Model update with PT to $83 from $57, primarily driven by breaking out subq Briumvi rev from IV's
on penetration, durability and pricing.
With recent Ph1 data, we see very high POS for Ph3 Q3M to succeed, based on our statistical
analysis. Ph1 (N=80) showed bioavailability (BA) of 60%+ with lower bound of 95% CI of 55%,
suggesting reasonable coefficient of variation of ~0.4 (relatively low variability). We conducted
sensitivity analysis with broader range of mean/ SD of BA, and conclude that Ph3 Q3M is highly
likely to meet 1EP, unless BA mean <49%/ SD >35%, either of which has low probability.
The self-administered subq market makes up a significant ~35% of an enormous CD20 MS
market, w/ continued growth expected in the coming years. The CD20 market in RMS is a large
commercial opportunity w/ an estimated ~7% CAGR to reach ~$15B by 2030. The IV/ SC CD20
market divide is expected to continue to evolve w/ SC potentially taking a greater share going
forward. The self-administered SC market is currently an estimated 35% of the CD20 MS market
and projected to grow to 40%-50% in the coming ~15 yrs (Chart 2). Kesimpta's strong launch w/ Roger Song, MD, CFA * | Equity Analyst
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