flynas (FLYNAS AB) Buy: Growth runway intact, valuation undemanding

研报英文原文证据摘录

flynas (FLYNAS AB) Buy: Growth runway intact, valuation undemanding

of end of March. 52-WEEK PRICE (SAR)

87.00

2Q26 likely marks the earnings trough. With surcharges implemented in the range of

SAR60-200 since March, we expect an increase in unit revenues (RASK) in Q2, providing 65.50

partial hedge against the surge in fuel bill during the quarter. This should help keep 44.00

06/25 12/25 06/26

EBITDA in the positive territory but we project losses in EBIT and bottom-line, mostly

Target price: 75.00 High: 82.20 Low: 48.56 Current: 58.20

driven in April-May. With the noteworthy decline in Brent and jet fuel prices in recent

Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

weeks, we believe that a sequential profit recovery is underway from June onwards. That

said, we cut our FY26-27 estimates as we detail in the relevant section in the report.

Cenk Orcan*

Aviation & Industrials Analyst

A six-hub network reinforces the long-term growth story. The upcoming launch HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S.

of operations from Al-Qassim in July will make flynas the first Saudi airline operating cenkorcan@hsbc.com.tr

+90 212 376 46 14

from six hubs across the Kingdom. flynas also announced its entry into the Syrian

David John*

aviation industry through flynas Syria, operated as a JV with the Syrian Civil Aviation Associate

Authority (51% stake), which management expects to be operational by 4Q26. Bangalore

Although the disruptions faced in 2025-26 reset the base for growth, the long-term

growth outlook is intact (we expect the fleet to reach 130 by end-2030). * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

TP cut to SAR75, retain Buy. We switch from 50/50 peer comparison/DCF valuation