Castellum: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Castellum: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Castellum- Castellum(CAST.ST) (CAST.ST)

Weak demand backdrop

PRICE TARGET SKr 115.00 UNDERWEIGHT THESIS

We construct our price target starting from a 'base discount' level of 10%. We widen this to We are constructive on European Property

reflect the group's high gearing, slow EPS growth (albeit with good EPS yield) and lower but see Castellum as a relative Underweight,

than average returns. This drives our 30% target discount, which at our estimated end-2026 even if we recognise the increasing positive

NAV drives a SKr 115 (rounded) price target. sentiment towards Swedish property stocks.

We do not think Castellum is the best way

SKr 129.69 to play this. More proactive self-help could

Consensus Price Target Distribution SKr 105.00 SKr 150.00 drive performance in the near term, but soft

MS PT metrics across the board (rental decline,

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates negative net leasing, increase in vacancy,

EPS decline, portfolio valuation write-down,

LTV increase) are likely to drive performance

RISK REWARD CHART in a more meaningful way, in our view.

SEK Consensus Rating Distribution

SKrSKrSKr 170.00(+40.03%)170.00170.00(+40.03%)(+40.03%)

44% Overweight

160 25% Equal-weight

31% Underweight

MS Rating

120 SKrSKrSKr 121.40121.40121.40 SKrSKrSKr 115.00(-5.27%)115.00115.00(-5.27%)(-5.27%) Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

80 Risk Reward Themes

SKrSKrSKr 70.00(-42.34%)70.0070.00(-42.34%)(-42.34%) Self-help: Positive

40 View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

JUN '25 DEC '25 JUN '26 JUN '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

BULL CASE SKr 170.00 BASE CASE SKr 115.00 BEAR CASE SKr 70.00