Evolution Gaming Underlying momentum remains challenging, with no near-term inflection in sight; Placing on Negative CW into Q2 results

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Evolution Gaming Underlying momentum remains challenging, with no near-term inflection in sight; Placing on Negative CW into Q2 results

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

26 June 2026

Evolution Gaming

Underlying momentum remains challenging, with no Underweight

near-term inflection in sight; Placing on Negative CW EVO.ST, EVO SS

into Q2 results Price (25 Jun 26):Skr665.40

Price Target (Dec-27):Skr550.00

We preview Evolution ahead of Q2 results (due 17th July) following our recent European Leisure, Hotels & Gaming

ACdiscussions with the company and our broader analysis of end markets and key Karan Puri

inputs. Shares have performed well YTD, outperforming our broader gaming (44-20) 7742-8342

coverage by ~25-30% and re-rating to ~8.5x FY 27e EV/EBITDA (vs ~7x at the karan.puri@jpmorgan.com

trough earlier this year). In our view, this move has been driven primarily by the J.P. Morgan Securities plc

recently announced €2bn share buyback (in May) — rather than an upgrade to Estelle Weingrod

underlying operating trends. We also expect Q2 to show little evidence of the (44-20) 7742-8502

estelle.weingrod@jpmorgan.com

inflection needed to support the current multiple: consensus appears to be looking J.P. Morgan Securities plc

for an improvement in Asia, whereas we see Asia trends staying weak, alongside

Avni Garg

continued softness in Europe (~70% of sales combined). (91-22) 6157-3431

avni.garg@jpmchase.com

As a result, we cut our Q2/H2 estimates slightly and place the shares on Negative J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

CW into the upcoming print, with our Q2 revenue (€515m) and EBITDA (€337m)

now ~2% below company-compiled consensus. Our revenue and EBITDA

estimates are on average ~3% below BBG consensus over FY 26–28. Price target Key Changes (FYE Dec)