Trip.com (TCOM US & 9961 HK) Macro-driven slowdown, structural story intact; reiterate OW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Trip.com (TCOM US & 9961 HK) Macro-driven slowdown, structural story intact; reiterate OW

Asia Pacific Equity Research

26 June 2026

Trip.com (TCOM US & 9961 HK)

Macro-driven slowdown, structural story intact;

reiterate OW

We reiterate our OW rating on Trip.com despite elevated near-term headline risk, China

as we believe the market is at risk of mispricing the cyclical, macro-driven Head of China Equity Research

slowdown as structural. We estimate that macro should account for ~8ppts of and Co-Head of Asia TMT

Trip.com’s slowdown in 2Q, with regulatory compliance adjustments contributing Research

4ppts, an impact that should fade as the industry normalizes to uniform rules. Alex Yao AC

Meanwhile, we believe the bull pillars are intact: international remains a powerful (86 21) 6106 6505

growth engine (gross bookings on international platform +65% yoy in 1Q26 alex.yao@jpmorgan.com

which should sustain into 2Q); regulatory adjustments don’t alter the long-term SAC Registration Number: S1730523020001

competitive structure; and the layered AI/agent strategy is a credible long-term Nancy Liu

lever to lower acquisition costs and lift conversion. With downside bounded and (86 21) 6106 6343

nancy.liu@jpmorgan.com

the structural growth story unchanged, we recommend accumulating on weakness. SAC Registration Number: S1730524090001

• Macro the dominant driver of the slowdown. Trip.com’s guidance of 3-8% J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company

yoy revenue growth in 2Q implies an 11-14ppt sequential slowdown, from 17% Limited

in 1Q. To separate macro from regulatory drag, we benchmark against

Tongcheng, which we see as the cleanest pure macro proxy (sharing Trip.com’s

domestic demand exposure but having limited regulatory overhang). We now