Macquarie ANZ Essentials - Jun 23 2026

研报英文原文证据摘录

Macquarie ANZ Essentials - Jun 23 2026

Macquarie Equity Research Macquarie ANZ Essentials - Jun 23 2026

• Spot prices are higher vs. MQe across Fe (+3%), Cu (+4%), Spod (+7%) and Thermal (+6%) across

CY26-27e, with Al +1% in line. Met is -4% vs MQe.

• At spot prices, we estimate EPS upside in Cu/Al/Li/coal, while Au sharp correction presents

consensus downgrade risk near term.

Computershare (Neutral) 8

The other side to higher US interest rates Andrew Buncombe, CFA

• CPU's Global Corporate Trust (GCT) division now represents almost ~45% of Group EBITDA.

• The catalyst for improved earnings in GCT will be falling interest rates, which at present appear

to be a headwind.

• Mar '26 qtrly growth vs. pcp: CPU Issuances value was +3.5% vs. pcp, compared with +21.9% for

the market; CPU market share was -40bps vs. Dec '25.

REA Group (Neutral) 9

A windy path ahead with housing market reform David Fabris

• The Australian housing market faces a challenging backdrop and reform, which we see negatively

impacting listing volumes and house prices.

• We forcast REA's Australian residential listing volumes to drop 6% through FY27-29E, with -1% /

-4%/ -1% growth across the periods.

• REA generally trades at a discount to long-run valuation when the Australian housing market is

challenging; supporting our cautious view.

SGH (Outperform) 10

Smoke signals Peter Steyn

• SGH announced what we describe as a qualified intent to buy back $500m in stock, starting

after FY26 results.

• In the context of the BSL bid process, a buyback is a credible backstop, but we think M&A intent

remains.

• Outperform. Trading likely to benefit from weather, BSL bid still on foot in our view and capital

discipline reinforced by buyback alternative.

Metcash (Neutral) 11

Food for thought Caleb Wheatley