Metso-Accelerating Minerals demand-06/21/2026

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Metso-Accelerating Minerals demand-06/21/2026

Metso

QUARTERLY PREVIEW | 21 JUN 2026

Accelerating Minerals demand Target price (EUR) 18

We est 9% OOG in Q2, with Minerals at 10% on small-mid equipment +DD Share price (EUR) 16

and aftermarket +HSD, and Aggregates at 6%. Aftermarket backlog

conversion supports a sequential improvement in the Minerals adj

EBITA margin to ~18%, lifting the group to ~16.8%. We raise estimates

1-4% in 2026-28 on supportive mining trends and are 5-8% ahead of

consensus on adj EBITA, mainly on Minerals. Reit Buy, TP EUR 18 (17).

Forecast changes

Strong Minerals demand despite no large orders % 2026e 2027e 2028e

For Q2, we est 9% OOG at the group level, with Minerals at 10% and Aggregates Revenues 1 2 3

at 6%. The Minerals backdrop remains supportive, with copper trading near ATH EBITDA 2 3 4

and Metso carrying a higher copper exposure than downstream peers Epiroc and EBIT adj 2 4 4

Sandvik, though gold has pulled back around 20% from its peak. No new large

EPS reported 2 4 5orders have been booked since Q1, but we see small-to-mid equipment orders

tracking DD and aftermarket HSD, a step-up from Q1 we expect to continue into EPS adj 2 4 5

H2 and accelerate into 2027, where management remains confident on securing Source: Pareto Securities

a couple of large orders. We see upside risk to estimates once large orders begin

converting. Metso has lagged peers on OOG in recent quarters, though we view Ticker METSO.HE, METSO FH

this as timing rather than structural, with historical sales growth broadly in line. In Sector Industrials

Aggregates the picture is more mixed, with the Iran conflict weighing on European

Shares fully diluted (m) 829.0

demand and Q1 pre-buying creating a softer comparable, though distributor