Haleon: 3% organic growth forecast in Q2-26

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Haleon: 3% organic growth forecast in Q2-26

The US (c.35% of sales) remains the key

driver of the 12-month story. After a weak 2025 and a soft Q1 impacted by CCF (~130bps

drag), we expect a visible inflection from Q2, supported by shelf space gains across Oral

Health, VMS, Pain Relief and Digestive Health and improving underlying volumes (~3% OSG

ex-CCF in Q1). We estimate the TDP (trade distribution points) benefit in the MSD range.

However, it is important to highlight that shelf space gains are expected to be phased

across Q2 and Q3. Haleon and several US peers have also flagged a more cautious stance

from retailers in the region, driven by macro pressures and higher fuel costs. Crucially, the

H2 comp base becomes undemanding (Q3 +0.4%, Q4 dragged by US destocking), while

World Cup activations around Tums and Voltaren should provide incremental support

creating a favourable setup for sequential acceleration through the year.

2. LatAm recovery to build through the year, led by Oral Health: Q1 weakness should prove

transitory, driven by self-inflicted pricing missteps in Brazil, now corrected. In Oral Health,

Sensodyne had moved to an excessive premium (c.3.0–4.0x vs International competitors in

Brazil)and prices have been reduced to now c.2.5x% premium vs Colgate, delivering

immediate volume uplifts as much as 50% on pricing which we estimate is down 20%. With

improved execution, new leadership (former Unilever head of LatAm Andres Gonzalez heads

Haleon LatAm) and a more supportive macro backdrop, we expect LatAm likely improved

performance in Q2 to be sustained into H2-26 given a lot of low hanging fruit.

3. Middle East risk near-term, but limited impact at group level: While the Middle East has