China Railway Sector "China railway traffic monthly: HSR service count +..."

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China Railway Sector "China railway traffic monthly: HSR service count +..."

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China Railway Sector Equities

ChinaChina railway traffic monthly: HSR service count

+7% MTD; more efficiency enhancements Industrial

Bruce Mi

Analyst

bruce.mi@ubs.com

Railway passenger volume slowed in May; HSR service count +7% MTD +86-21-3866 8851

According to the Ministry of Transport (MoT), China's railway passenger volume growth Robin Xu

decelerated to 2% YoY in May from 11% in April, which we attribute to the high base in Analyst

May 2025 (+13% YoY). Entering June, UBS Evidence Lab's China Railway Traffic Monitor S1460511010012

(> Access Dataset) indicates that nationwide average daily number of rail/HSR (high- bin.xu@ubs.com

speed rail) services is up 6%/7% MTD. Railway passenger volume growth during the +86-21-3866 8872

Dragon Boat Festival holiday was 3% YoY, below the 5% during the Labour Day holiday Zed Sheng

in May, but still outperformed total domestic travel volume (-1% YoY). Among major Analyst

routes, the MTD average daily number of G-series services increased 2% YoY for Beijing- S1460525030003

Shanghai, 8% YoY for Guangzhou-Shenzhen, 1% YoY for Beijing-Xi'an and 3% YoY for zed.sheng@ubs.com

Shanghai-Xi'an. We note that the number of tech-enhanced Fuxin train services on the +86-21-3866 8730

Beijing-Shanghai route rose 3% YoY, outpacing overall G-series services. Xin Chen

Beijing-Shanghai route sold-out rate dropped MTD with largely flat fares S1460511050002

Based on UBS Evidence Lab data, the average sold-out rate for Beijing-Shanghai HSR xin.chen@ubs.com

+86-21-3866 8864

second-class tickets in the past four weeks fell 8ppt YoY. We estimate that the HSR

market share on the Beijing-Shanghai route declined in June vs.