Asia FX/Rates Strategy "US, UK Investor Trip Feedback" Arora

研报英文原文证据摘录

Asia FX/Rates Strategy "US, UK Investor Trip Feedback" Arora

Global Research

23 June 2026ab

Asia FX/Rates Strategy Global Strategy

GlobalUS, UK Investor Trip Feedback

Rohit Arora

Strategist

US, UK Investor trip takeaways: AI Tailwinds, FX Divergence rohit-b.arora@ubs.com

+65-6495 5232

We met near 50 investors across the US and UK over the past fortnight to discuss Asia FX

and rates outlook. Here are the key takeaways from our discussions. Manik Narain

manik.narain@ubs.com

#1. Bullish tech stocks (mostly in Asia), Long EM carry (none in Asia). Investors +44-20-7568 3635

remained comfortably long tech with Korea memory stocks being the key overweight,

Teck Quan Koh

with little concern over a near-term peak. This pro-risk view, alongside low FX vols, is Strategist

driving investors into EM carry trades in LatAm and select EEMEA FX, while Asia ex-CNH teck-quan.koh@ubs.com

has largely been a funder YTD. Amid concentration, investors are seeking diversification; +65-6495 4416

lower oil revives interest in Asian HY, with a slight tilt to INR over IDR.

UBS View==> UBS is OW Semi stocks (and Korea stocks); We see the market

conditions akin to early '99 and not 1Q20. Be selective within EM carry complex

amidst a tight risk premia, favouring opportunities resting on firm foundations

(long BRL, COP, HUF and tactically TRY). We're neutral INR, long USD/IDR.

#2. Tactically constructive USD vs. low yielders amidst a hawkish Fed. Several

investors were positioning for a tactical USD rebound vs. low-yielders, driven by resilient

US consumption and labour markets, strong AI capex, easy financial conditions, and

above-trend core PCE inflation. While some see front-end re-pricing as nearing its limits,

positively carrying long USD trades are still preferred.