Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot "Hormuz re-opening in focus" Patricot

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Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot "Hormuz re-opening in focus" Patricot

Global Oil Market

UBS Scenario Oil price forecast ($/bbl)

We expect Brent to remain in the $90s over the rest of 2Q26 as

flows via Hormuz remain very disrupted but inventories cover Oil price fore cast ($/ bbl)

the shortfall. As this diminishes over July, we expect prices to rise

towards recent highs, leading to an agreement to reopen

Hormuz. We believe that the market is likely to factor in a

structurally higher risk premium though, as tensions are likely to

linger. A limited supply response and the need to rebuild

inventories should also support prices in 2027. Looking further

out, rising efficiency and EVs' increasing impact should see

demand growth slow sharply and peak oil reached by 2030E, Source: Datastream, UBS estimates.

although this is likely to be followed by a long plateau rather

than a sharp drop. We expect global spare capacity to decline as

non-OPEC supply growth slows down more rapidly than oil

demand growth, limiting the negative impact on prices and

keeping long-term marginal cost around $75/bbl.

Upside price scenarios UBS S/D balance and implied stock change (Mb/d)

In the near term, we see the main potential upside risk coming

from greater Middle East disruptions amid the conflict with Iran. ed

If major oil infrastructure in the region is targeted and the pli

conflict extends beyond the summer, prices could spike to >

im

$150/bbl. This would drive more severe demand destruction,

with limited OPEC+ ability to act. While such a price may be and

short-lived, a structurally higher risk premium could keep prices nce

in the $80s/bbl range and ongoing disruptions would keep it

even higher. bala

S/D

UBS

stoc k ch ange (Mb /d)