Safran (AO) | Buy | Solid H1 trends could drive upgrades (H1 preview)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Safran (AO) | Buy | Solid H1 trends could drive upgrades (H1 preview)

#EarningsPreview #Positive

Release date: 25 June 2026

Aymeric Poulain

Head of Aerospace & Defence

+41 43 333 6624

apoulain@keplercheuvreux.com

BuySafran

France | Aerospace & defence Beta Profile: MCap: EUR140.3bn

Target Price: EUR385.00 Bloomberg: SAF FP Reuters: SAF.PA

Current Price: EUR338.40 Free float 81%

Up/downside: 13.8% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 425.0

YTD abs performance 13.8% Market data: 24 June 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 347.20/263.70

Solid H1 trends could drive upgrades (H1 preview)

Key points:

Safran is due to report H1 results on 28 July 2026.

We believe Q2 trends have remained strong as the War in Iran has had minimal effects on Safran's aftermarket businesses. Dollar

effects (mostly hedged at the operating profit level) were less of a toll on revenues in Q2 than in Q1. As a result, we expect Safran

to report H1 revenue growth of 20% to EUR 17.8bn. Civil Aftermarket organic growth was stellar in Q1. Although a deceleration is

expected throughout the year, work scope effects continue to surprise on the upside and should have kept Civil Aftermarket spare

part organic growth to above 20% in Q2.

As per last year, we expect Adj. EBIT margin to be buoyed by strong Propulsion aftermarket trend, pointing to possible earnings

guidance upgrades. Indeed, if we are right in our interpretation of H1 trends, the implied return to mid single digit organic growth

for Propulsion Civil Aftermarket trends (implied by the mid teen spare growth guidance and 20% Services growth) in H2 looks

very unlikely given the planned shop visit growth trend, mid single digit pricing gains and the likely continuation of positive work

scope effects. FCF should also react positively to profit and OE delivery growth.