Signify (1K) | Reduce | Blackout

研报英文原文证据摘录

Signify (1K) | Reduce | Blackout

#TPchange

Release date: 25 June 2026

Company research

ESG profile ReduceSignify

Netherlands | Capital goods Beta Profile: MCap: EUR2.2bn

Target Price: EUR15.50 (16.70) Change in TP: -7.2 % Bloomberg: LIGHT NA Reuters: LIGHT.AS

Current Price: EUR17.75 Change in Sales: -0.6% 26E/-2.4% 27E Free float 96%

Up/downside: -12.7% Change in Adj EBIT: -6.1% 26E/-10.3% 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 24.7

YTD abs performance -15.3% Market data: 24 June 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: -5.7% 26E/-10.4% 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 23.66/17.59

Blackout Price performance

Why this report?

Following Signify’s CMD on Tuesday, and the subsequent sharp sell-off, we

revise our 2026-29E forecasts to fully incorporate the company’s new

medium-term framework. Since our Lights Out initiation in April, our

investment case has centred on weak end-markets, limited top-line

momentum, margin dependence on self-help, and downside risk to cash

returns. In our view, these concerns have been validated. While the strategy is

now clearer, the implied recovery path is slower than we had previously

assumed. This leads us to remove the recovery we had previously embedded

from late 2027 and into 2028, replacing it with a more gradual stabilisation

profile. As a result, we lower our organic growth assumptions, now modelling

broadly flat growth from 2028, and reduce our Adj. EBIT and EPS estimates

across the forecast period. Despite the share price correction, we still see FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

downside risk to valuation, given an uncertain 2026 outlook for both sales Sales 5,411 5,308 5,294

EBITDA adj. 600 605 636

and margins, and a strategic trajectory that remains execution-heavy, with EBIT adj. 372 393 429

limited evidence of decisive portfolio action at this stage.