Morning Market Tidbits: Holding with weak hands

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Morning Market Tidbits: Holding with weak hands

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Morning Market Tidbits

Holding with weak hands

Key takeaways 23 June 2026

Economics• Powell and a few others might have projected a hold at Warsh's first meeting as a

United States

matter of courtesy.

• But if the data remain strong through the summer, we think they will get on board for Aditya Bhave

US Economist

hikes by Sep. BofAS

aditya.bhave@bofa.com

• Today's events: ADP weekly job growth and S&P manufacturing and services PMI.

US Economics

BofAS

See Team Page for List of Analysts

What Matters Today: In our view, Powell, Jefferson and Williams were amongst the eight

policymakers projecting a hold this year SEP: Summary of Economic

BofA Global Research estimates of which policymakers correspond to the 2026 dot plot forecasts from June Projections

(%)

PMI: Purchasing Managers’ Index

4.50 Hammack

4.25 Goolsbee Kashkari Logan Schmid Waller

4.00 Barr Collins Musalem

3.75 Atlanta Barkin Cook Daly Jefferson Paulson Powell Williams

3.50 Bowman

3.25

Governors 2026 voters Non-voters

Source: Federal Reserve Board, BofA Global Research

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

A polite hold message…

Some clients have argued that the 2026 dots in the June SEP weren’t as hawkish as they

appear because a majority of voters likely don’t want to cut. We see it differently. In our

view, Powell, Jefferson and Williams were amongst the eight policymakers projecting a

hold this year. But we think their projections are partly motivated by optics: if the Fed

didn’t cut under their leadership, it could appear antagonistic to project hikes at Warsh’s

first meeting as Chair. One can arguably make a similar argument for Gov. Cook, whose

case the Supreme Court will rule on in short order.

…but likely not for too long