US Semiconductors: State of the Union: raising estimates as AI extends visibility into 2028

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US Semiconductors: State of the Union: raising estimates as AI extends visibility into 2028

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US Semiconductors

State of the Union: raising estimates as AI

extends visibility into 2028

Price Objective Change

Inflation plus stronger demand = higher industry forecasts 23 June 2026

We reiterate our thesis of the AI industry moving to addressing structural and physical Equity

(chips, power) constraints, from having to defend return-on-investment before. United States

Memory chip shortages and price inflation remain the critical moving pieces, and we Semiconductors

update our semis industry models and price objectives to conform to the updated Vivek Arya

industry estimates. Specifically, we raise our CY30E total semis industry TAM to $2.7Tn, Research Analyst

or +28% CAGR between CY25-30E, from $2.3Tn/+23% CAGR prior, led mostly by growth BofASvivek.arya@bofa.com

in memory/data center, and also incrementally by recovery in auto/industrial. Our new Duksan Jang

industry forecasts/ests derive higher price objectives for key semiconductor and Research Analyst

BofAS

semicap equipment companies as summarized in Exhibit 1. duksan.jang@bofa.com

Top 5 themes driving next $1Tn in incremental semi sales MichaelResearch ManiAnalyst

The chip industry took ~50 years to generate its first $1Tn in sales. We expect AI to help michael.mani@bofa.com

add another $1Tn in just the next five years. Key drivers include: 1) AI data center Liam Pharr

systems TAM of ~$1.7Tn by CY30E, growing from just ~$273bn in CY25, led by Research Analyst

Insatiable demand for compute (see our AI 2030 report); 2) Memory strength/durability, liam.pharr@bofa.com

led by LTAs providing greater confidence in 2-3-year supply/demand/pricing visibility, as