Liquid Insight: US exceptionalism at play in global curves

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Liquid Insight: US exceptionalism at play in global curves

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Liquid Insight

US exceptionalism at play in global curves

Key takeaways 23 June 2026

Rates and Currencies Research• The US curve has flattened sharply since early May, in strong contrast with other

Global global DM curves.

• Fed & fundamentals support more US flattening. Large curve divergence vs EUR may

thus limit further near term EUR steepening. GlobalMLI (UK)Rates & Currencies Research

• Other idiosyncratic factors also make us cautious on long-end EUR steepeners near Sphia Salim

term. We close our 10y5y-15y15y steepener. Rates Strategist MLI (UK)

+44 20 7996 2227

sphia.salim@bofa.com

By Sphia Salim Oliver Levingston

Chart of the day: Clear divergence between US curve flattening and steepening elsewhere FXMerrilland LynchRates (HongStrategistKong)

Changes in 2s10s and 10s30s swaps curves since May 4th (bp) +852 3508 4631

oliver.levingston@bofa.com

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2s10s 10s30s 19-Jun-26 Fed hawkish, stay paid US 2Y

-15 18-Jun-26 Bearish EUR views from

-20 across the pond

-25 17-Jun-26 BoE Preview: Ready, steady…

US JP UK CA AU EUR hold.

16-Jun-26 June FOMC: Stranger changer

Source: BofA Global Research 15-Jun-26 BoJ preview: Policy path vs.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH rhetoric

EUR steepening limited by already large divergence vs US 11-Jun-26 UK:ThursdayGearing up for super

The past month and a half has seen the outlook for the Fed shift dramatically, with the 10-Jun-26 US CPI, the US inflation

market finally embracing the idea of hikes this year. This led to a sharp US flattening, in curve, and the components

contrast with other regions. Compared to early May, the US 2s10s curve is 20bp flatter, of the Treasury/Bund spread