Sandoz Group AG: CMD announced. New mid-term guide likely captures c$10bn biosimilars pipeline

研报英文原文证据摘录

Sandoz Group AG: CMD announced. New mid-term guide likely captures c$10bn biosimilars pipeline

Neutral. Biosimilar opp significant, but fairly reflected

SDZ has rallied c35% since 3Q when US regulatory tailwinds emerged and it has

sounded increasingly bullish on the mid-term biosimilars opp. We forecast the SDZ 28-

35E biosimilars pipeline (Keytruda, Darzalex, Dupixent, Skyrizi, etc.) as a total c$10bn

peak sales opp (vs FY25 $11bn group sales / $3.3bn biosimilar sales) which supports a

c6% group sales CAGR 28-35E. The mid-term biosimilars opp is clearly significant, but

we reiterate our Neutral as: 1) stock valuation (19x 27E P/E) already reflects that SDZ

achieves a decent share of a robust biosimilars market (our NPV of the SDZ pipeline

represents c30% of our PO), in our view; 2) we see risks from increasing competition

and greater pricing discounts (especially in the US) as the biosimilar market evolves over

the next 10 years. Our $10bn pipeline forecast assumes SDZ gets an average c15%

biosimilars market share at a c70% price discount. An average 10% market share, or

80% average price decline would imply just a c4% 28-35E sales CAGR, materially below

what valuation is reflecting; 3) there are no significant biosimilar launches until FY29

with FY27/28 underappreciated slow years for sales growth (we estimate c3-5%).

Biosimilars pipeline supports mid-term c5-7% sales CAGR

Our forecast sales growth in the 5-7% range from 29E to 34E is supported by continued

biosimilar launches detailed within. Below reflects our CER sales growth outlook through

the mid-term where after a slower FY27 and FY28, mid-term opp becomes significant.

We think a 28-33E mid-term outlook would appropriately capture the significant 29E