What's the Buzz in Basics Volume LXXXVII

研报英文原文证据摘录

What's the Buzz in Basics Volume LXXXVII

Agriculture

Chemicals

Packaging

What's the Buzz in Basics Volume LXXXVII June 21, 2026

The Wolfe Byte

The "on again, off again" rhetoric out of the Middle East is becoming increasingly exhausting, but investors seem to

view the SoH re-opening process as a path of least resistance - and appear unwilling to chase "mini" rallies during

periods of uncertainty.

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HERE.

The Strong Get Stronger and the Weak Getting Weaker - at Least in Terms of Narratives: Over the past week our

assessment of investor sentiment suggests further bullish focus on narratives building momentum (esp. Electronics

Materials) and de-emphasizing (at least temporarily) those commodities associated with the SoH re-opening (PE, PP,

Nitrogen, intermediates). At the time of publication key uncertainties remain on the latter (Iran suggesting the SoH

remains closed, news of further peace talks between the US / Iran) - but it's our belief that as much as Middle Eastern

rhetoric is likely to cause further volatility across our coverage, investors will utilize any interim strength in oil (and

correlated commodities) to fade positions, not build new long positions. It's never been our presumption that the SoH

re-opening process would be "simple" (proxies in Lebanon and Yemen, etc.) - but relative free flowing traffic is our 2H

"base case".

Two Key (not so simple) Questions to Address into the 2H: Two of the largest questions heading into the 2H

remain (i.) w/ the SoH traffic gradually opening w/o restriction, will the perceived 2Q/3Q profit/FCF tailwinds match Apr