Sunday Spotlight - Checking In On Spend Trends

研报英文原文证据摘录

Sunday Spotlight - Checking In On Spend Trends

June 21, 2026

Investment Conclusion

Wolfe Research FinTech Subsector Performance vs. S&P500

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-60%

Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26

SPY Payments Financial Outsourcing IT Services Card Issuers

Source: FactSet, Wolfe Research

Over the last 12 months, the Wolfe FinTech index is down 26% and the Wolfe IT Services index is down 55%

while Wolfe Card Issuers are up 20% vs. the S&P up 25%.

While investors are concerned about interest rate trajectory and the impact on fundamentals from macro

conditions and policy outcomes, we believe that at recent valuation levels, multiples reflect much of the macro

risk. Names exposed to tailwinds surrounding SMB, consumer-centric, and discretionary spending top our list of

recommendations as we believe investors may turn to names with more cyclical exposures into 2026.

Payments & Processors (Market Overweight): We believe that post-election policy changes continue to favor fund

flows into financials, consumer spending remains remarkably resilient, and confidence levels have stabilized among

both consumers and SMBs. Therefore, we prefer more cyclically exposed names. Within core compounders some

select stocks we recommend include V, MA, and JKHY. On the other end of the spectrum, investors looking to add

more growth exposure could look to ADYEN, KLAR, and XYZ.

IT Services (Market Weight): We believe a floor has potentially been found as firms signal stable (albeit not

improving) trends. With the sector having underperformed in 2025, we see more balanced risk-reward heading

into 2026. Although enterprises likely pulled forward spend following the pandemic, we believe growing interest