Australian Resources "Iron Ore Seasonality & Spot Scenario" Shaw

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Australian Resources "Iron Ore Seasonality & Spot Scenario" Shaw

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Australian Resources Equities

AustralasiaIron Ore Seasonality & Spot Scenario

Mining

Lachlan Shaw

Iron Ore Seasonality; & Spot Scenario Analyst

We believe seasonality points to some near-term softness in iron ore, but easing supply lachlan.shaw@ubs.com

and declining scrap usage are supportive at the margin, leaving elevated Chinese port +61-3-9242 6387

stocks as the key cap on price upside. Meanwhile, on our spot scenario, MIN and RIO Fintan Collins

have strongest Div Mins momentum. Associate Analyst

fintan.collins@ubs.com

Iron Ore Prices: Recent price weakness reflective of seasonality (only?) +61-3-9242 6179

Following our examination last week of the iron ore cost curve, where we highlighted Dim Ariyasinghe

95th percentile cost support ~US$103/t (61% Fe, CFR China), we move to take a look Analyst

across key iron ore and steel signals. Seasonal patterns suggest a modest near-term dim.ariyasinghe@ubs.com

+61-3-9242 6385

easing in seaborne iron ore supply, with shipments from Australia and South Africa likely

to soften (Figure 1AustraliaIronOreShipments(Monthly,Anualised), Figure 3SouthAfricaIronOreShipments(Monthly,Anualised)) after a strong June half, while Brazil and Canada should Levi Spry

improve into year end (Figure 2BrazilIronOreShipments(Monthly,Anualised), Figure 4CanadaIronOreShipments(Monthly,Anualised)). At the producer level, BHP and FMG may ease Analyst

lower in early FY27 following solid June quarters for each (Figure 6BHP, Figure 8FMG), Rio Tinto levi.spry@ubs.com

+61-3-9242 6709

may dip modestly before building into its December half-year end, and Vale appears set

to continue its seasonal ramp-up (Figure 7RIO, Figure 9Vale).