China Heavy-Duty Truck Sector "June: slowing domestic demand; exports remain..."

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China Heavy-Duty Truck Sector "June: slowing domestic demand; exports remain..."

Global Research

22 June 2026ab

China Heavy-Duty Truck Sector Equities

ChinaJune: slowing domestic demand; exports remain

strong Automobile Manufacturers

Wei Shen

Analyst

wei.shen@ubs.com

June HDT dealer feedback +86-21-3866 8897

We expect heavy-duty truck (HDT) sales of 105k units in June, up 7% YoY/down 4% Paul Gong

MoM. As per dealers: 1) domestic demand declined sequentially in early June with LNG Analyst

HDT sales slowing notably due to higher oil and gas prices; 2) the "618" shopping paul.gong@ubs.com

festival failed to provide a significant boost to demand for logistics HDTs; and 3) demand +852-2971 7868

for electric HDTs remains brisk with medium and long haul logistics businesses, including

couriers, utilising electric HDTs. Separately, Sinotruk's management expects exports to

improve in June over May, citing the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz this

month.

Electrification the future direction for long-haul logistics

This month 11 ministries, including the Ministry of Transport, released a joint

implementation plan to promote the large-scale use of new-energy HDTs. The goal is a

penetration rate of 40% by 2030 at over 1.6m units, or 20% of overall HDT ownership.

For the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cluster, the plan targets at an electrification rate for short-

haul logistics vehicles exceeding 80% and 18% for long-haul logistics. In May 2026, 30k

units of new-energy HDTs were sold for a domestic penetration rate of 40%; we believe

sales may rise further in H226 , as H2 is typically a peak season. Therefore, we think the

goal is not aggressive and should be achievable. We expect electric HDT sales at 600k