Global Strategy "CTAs' Positioning and Flows - Biweekly Update" Le Roux

研报英文原文证据摘录

Global Strategy "CTAs' Positioning and Flows - Biweekly Update" Le Roux

Global Research

22 June 2026ab

Global Strategy Global Macro Strategy

GlobalCTAs' Positioning and Flows - Biweekly Update

Nicolas Le Roux

Strategist

Details on the methodology/model can be found in our Q-Series report nicolas.le-roux@ubs.com

+33-14-953 2118

Bhanu Baweja

Risky assets & carry trades to remain supported in a low-volatility environment Strategist

• In equities, we expect realized volatility to decline by around 3pp in the coming weeks, bhanu.baweja@ubs.com

which should support long positioning as CTAs re-leverage. However, CTAs are likely to +44-20-7568 6833

remain more sensitive to downside risks, and any setback in US-Iran negotiations could Paul Winter

trigger adverse outflows, particularly in a context of hawkish Fed signals and reduced Analyst

forward guidance. paul-j.winter@ubs.com

• In bonds, CTAs have begun to cover duration shorts and remain biased toward further +61-2-9324 2080

buying. This is particularly evident in the US and Japan, with a stronger skew toward the Julien Conzano

long end of the US curve. Strategist

• In credit, CTAs are long and adding to positions, creating a supportive backdrop. With julien.conzano@ubs.com

the summer period and events such as the world cup typically compressing volatility, +44-20-7567 2067

carry trades should remain well supported, with credit at the forefront. Gerry Fowler

• In FX, CTAs are actively accumulating USD, having bought around $100bn since our Strategist

last update, with a further $40-50bn expected over the coming two weeks, mainly gerry.fowler@ubs.com

against G10 FX. GBP, CNH, and commodity-linked currencies appear most at risk. +44-20-7567 5490

• In commodities, CTAs are selling aggressively across all four cohorts.