US Restaurants "What a Difference a Week+ Makes" Geiger

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US Restaurants "What a Difference a Week+ Makes" Geiger

Global Research

22 June 2026ab

US Restaurants Equities

AmericasWhat a Difference a Week+ Makes

Restaurants

Dennis Geiger, CFA

Positive headlines drive better sentiment, but select valuations reflect optimism Analyst

Our investor discussions and meetings in Europe last week focused on implications from dennis.geiger@ubs.com

a potential resolution to the Middle East conflict and lower gas prices. With sentiment +1-212-713 9313

improving some relative to prior months, investors appear to be debating the setup now Paul Hao

for the rest of ’26, specifically whether consumer restaurant demand / spend improves Associate Analyst

more significantly or just modestly relative to recent trends (given consumer pressures paul.hao@ubs.com

likely still persist and trends weren’t particularly strong pre gas price spikes). Investors +1-201-352 1091

have been surprised by the magnitude of share gains across parts of the industry over Nikhil Gunderia

the past 1.5 weeks, with particular gains in casual dining and higher growth restaurants. Associate Analyst

Despite some optimism around potential for an improving demand backdrop, our nikhil.gunderia@ubs.com

conversations suggest increasing caution on select restaurants with more elevated +1-212-713 3258

valuations following sizable gains over the past week. Emily Li

Associate Analyst

DRI earnings (6/25) - investor expectations we’ve heard include F4Q Olive emily.li@ubs.com

Garden (OG) sss of modestly below Consensus’ 3.4% or in the higher 2% range +1-212-649 8262

and upside at LongHorn (LH) with sss in the ~7-8% range (Cons. 6.6%).

Discussions suggest expectations for FY27 guidance are largely in line with DRI’s

long-term growth algorithm, including sss growth of 1.5-3.5% (Cons.