KPN (1K) | Buy (vs Hold) | FCF inflection in sight

研报英文原文证据摘录

KPN (1K) | Buy (vs Hold) | FCF inflection in sight

#RatingChange

Release date: 24 June 2026

Company research

ESG profile Buy (Hold)KPN

Netherlands | Telecom services Beta Profile: MCap: EUR16.5bn

Target Price: EUR5.30 (4.30) Change in TP: 23.3 % Bloomberg: KPN NA Reuters: KPN.AS

Current Price: EUR4.37 Change in Sales: -0.4% 26E/-0.2% 27E Free float 100%

Up/downside: 21.2% Change in Adj EBIT: -2.5% 26E/-1.5% 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 100.6

YTD abs performance 10.0% Market data: 23 June 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: -6.1% 26E/-3.0% 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 4.87/3.79

FCF inflection in sight Price performance

Why this report?

KPN had a soft start to 2026, but we expect momentum to improve through

the year. The Dutch market remains constructive, while the Odido data

breach should support KPN’s premium, security-led positioning and help

drive lower churn as customers place greater value on trust and network

quality. More importantly, the investment case is shifting towards the 2027

FCF inflection. As fibre capex tails off, we expect FCF to grow by c. 25% YOY in

2027, leaving the shares on an attractive c. 7.5% 2027E FCF yield. With this

inflection now approaching, we raise our TP to EUR5.3 and upgrade KPN to

Buy from Hold.

Key findings

Positives: KPN benefits from a relatively supportive three-player Dutch telecom FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

market, with growth driven by pricing, fibre migration, convergence, and security- Sales 5,910 6,049 6,183

led upsell. KPN should be well placed to capture any trust-related tailwind after EBITDA adj. 2,808 2,888 2,970

the Odido data breach, particularly as cybersecurity, defence and sovereign-cloud EBIT adj. 1,474 1,528 1,578

Net profit adj. 869 923 964demand become more important across Dutch customer segments.